feat: llms scare me

5 files changed, 236 insertions, 5 deletions

diff --git a/assets/more/bookmarks.yml b/assets/more/bookmarks.yml
index 45a3232..98e234c 100644
--- a/assets/more/bookmarks.yml
+++ b/assets/more/bookmarks.yml
@@ -313,3 +313,21 @@ bookmarks:
   host: honest-broker.com
   source_url: https://chaos.social/@citizen428/113691489014325440
   source_host: chaos.social
+- url: https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/
+  title: Tech giants pour $292 billion into AI while software revenue barely registers.
+  date: '2024-12-23'
+  host: indiadispatch.com
+  source_url: https://tech.slashdot.org/story/24/12/23/1314259/software-revenue-lags-despite-tech-giants-292-billion-ai-spend
+  source_host: tech.slashdot.org
+- url: https://perladvent.org/2024/2024-12-23.html
+  title: " Perl Advent Calendar 2024 -  A New Logo for Perl  "
+  date: '2024-12-23'
+  host: perladvent.org
+  source_url:
+  source_host:
+- url: https://www.osnews.com/story/141399/never-forgive-them/
+  title: Never forgive them
+  date: '2024-12-23'
+  host: osnews.com
+  source_url:
+  source_host:
diff --git a/content-org/.#blog.org b/content-org/.#blog.org
deleted file mode 120000
index e9c1dc6..0000000
--- a/content-org/.#blog.org
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-mms@voyager.local.45942:1734682989
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/content-org/blog.org b/content-org/blog.org
index ab98ade..620622d 100644
--- a/content-org/blog.org
+++ b/content-org/blog.org
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
 #+HUGO_SECTION: blog
 
 
-* 2024  [107/109]                                                     :@blog:
+* 2024  [108/110]                                                     :@blog:
 :PROPERTIES:
 :EXPORT_HUGO_SECTION: blog/2024
 :EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :image_dir "blog/images" :image_max_width 600
@@ -124,6 +124,110 @@ Microsoft GitHub is still not near the biggest sin an Open Source can commit whe
 
 **
 
+** DONE LLMs are everything that it wrong in the world of computing
+CLOSED: [2024-12-23 Mon 21:53]
+:PROPERTIES:
+:EXPORT_FILE_NAME: llms-scare-me
+:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Abstract On why I am loosing hope in software
+:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Listening For help me - Calm Nights
+:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Listening_Url https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A2YmgCOImc
+:END:
+
+For decades corporations have been doing anything in their power to make computers /worse/.
+Software used to much faster, much leaner than it is now.
+Hardware performance is progresing by leaps and bounds, but somehow the software is slower.
+Yes, programs we run (cough, web applications, cough) are more complex, but the complexity increase is smaller than the compute improvements.
+
+Software used to also be substantially better written.
+When sending patches to clients was a risk by itself, releasing barely working software was akin to shooting yourself in the foot.
+Now bug are expected.
+Again - I am comparing simpler software to what we have now, but the complexity increase is smaller than increase in budgets and team sizes.
+
+Software also used to be:
+- much more open
+- purchasable
+- not requiring internet
+- not as streamlined
+- not designed by psychologists to be addictive
+- not designed to be a constant stream of revenue
+- swiftly improving
+- possible to be created by teens in their bedrooms
+- simple (as in having a limited use case)
+- small
+- running on different hardware architectures (yes, there used to be more than 3 systems)
+
+I am often accused of romanticizing past, but I am far from that.
+Software of the golden age had lots of problems, it was far from perfect.
+I am critical of the path we took - as it was aimed not at /better software/, but at /better return of investment/.
+We could have had much better working computers, but here we are.
+Everything is barely working but dollar pours.
+Some call it enshittification, others distribution.
+All I know is this is not going to stop.
+It is never enough.
+
+This brings me to ChatGPT, LLMs and all that crap.
+I have to admit, that the way it works is extremely cool.
+Some vector math is able to fool us into thinking we are interacting with a human being?
+How cool!
+I'd love bo be amazed by it, but if you we look at it critically, it a is terrible peace of software.
+It is slow, expensive, and non-deterministic.
+If I released a code to production with has /some chance/ to work or not, I would need to fix it.
+If the same software yielded different returns /by design/, I'd need to rewrite it.
+
+I am fully convinced that LLMs are not a path forward at best, and a huge step backward at worst.
+A lot of people are looking at this tech with scared eyes, but there's no chance LLM will be better than they are.
+
+However, as in the above examples, better doesn't always win.
+I am afraid that too much money was invested in this dead-end technology for it to fall.
+The entire computing world is the hands of a few gigantic companies, and each of them has fully risked their future on it.
+Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, AMD, Apple - by the end of 2024 there is no big computer company left that is not "AI first".
+Will they let their investments go to waste?
+
+Google search is useless; Windows is a clown show; Facebook/Twitter are not be touched by humans.
+Yet they own /billions/ of dollars.
+They are able to throw piles of dollars in the data center furnace and wait.
+The fact that they also benefit from those dollars doesn't make it any harder.
+
+I know people who already can't work without asking ChatGPT and they lived through better times.
+But I also know teens who never had a fast computer; for whom slow a web app is the only status-quo they have experienced.
+For them the current crap software is simply /software/.
+I am really afraid that the next generations may never know deterministic software.
+Companies can simply continue to add "AI" features (since AI is now a synonym for GenAI), and raise the kids with it.
+Will the kids care that it sucks?
+Will they even know?
+
+Will they give a rat's ass that the GenAI has only two goals: first, to become abstraction over all interactions with computer; second - to make people obsolete?
+I think the first one is the goal, while the other is what GenAI dealers sell to investors.
+Microsoft and Google want to be between everything we do with out computers; that was their strategy for a long time.
+It's a self-propelling nightmare: the worse the vision, the bigger is the money river, which fuels making computers unusable.
+We have already lost so many alternatives - Google is trying to fix itself with GenAI after it destroyed itself with ads, after it destroyed all competition.
+The web was already great.
+Microsoft Windows ate all other x86 OSes except of Unix - and we had dozens of great ones.
+Apple iOS or Google Android are mandatory - but this was not the case a few short years ago.
+
+Progress is not linear and /better/ doesn't always win.
+In most cases whatever gives more return to the investors does.
+And no other technology has more investor risk attached to it than LLMs.
+AI has a lot of usecases, but it is thrown away to make way for GenAI.
+This steamroller may break computers, the economy, and the environment.
+But there is nothing we can about it, as none of us is a billionaire.
+All we can do is to dance how it pleases them.
+
+Unless something *big* happens.
+With infinite pockets, the giants can just [[https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/][burn the money]] - literally.
+
+---
+
+I will keep this site althole-free, and I will personally run software that has zero LLM.
+I don't use copilot, I had only a dozen chats with GPT.
+I will try to continue keeping LLM subjects here to a minimum.
+This is my life and this is where I have any control.
+This is the only rebellion I am capable of.
+
+---
+
+In unrelated news - SystemD now tries to convince people that having file-based logs is deprecated.
+And in few short years we will have Linux "administrators" who don't know how to use grep(1).
 
 ** DONE New license plate frame
 CLOSED: [2024-12-21 Sat 21:08]
@@ -136,7 +240,7 @@ My car's license plate frame broke, so I had to get new one.
 I could get a boring, all-black one... or add a few /PLN/ and have it personalized.
 
 #+attr_shortcode: :file license-frame.JPEG
-#+attr_shortcode: :alt A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" can be seen, an on the right "RunBSD"
+#+attr_shortcode: :alt A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" text can be seen, and on the right "RunBSD"
 #+attr_shortcode: :class centered
 #+begin_image
 My new frame
diff --git a/content/blog/2024/frame.md b/content/blog/2024/frame.md
index df7b24a..eee4d1b 100644
--- a/content/blog/2024/frame.md
+++ b/content/blog/2024/frame.md
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ author = ["Michał Sapka"]
 date = 2024-12-21T21:08:00+01:00
 categories = ["blog"]
 draft = false
-weight = 2001
+weight = 2002
 image_dir = "blog/images"
 image_max_width = 600
 Abstract = "RunBSD!"
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Abstract = "RunBSD!"
 My car's license plate frame broke, so I had to get new one.
 I could get a boring, all-black one... or add a few _PLN_ and have it personalized.
 
-{{< image class="centered" alt="A black license plate frame. On the left a white &quot;FreeBSD&quot; can be seen, an on the right &quot;RunBSD&quot;" file="license-frame.JPEG" >}}
+{{< image class="centered" alt="A black license plate frame. On the left a white &quot;FreeBSD&quot; text can be seen, and on the right &quot;RunBSD&quot;" file="license-frame.JPEG" >}}
 My new frame
 {{< /image >}}
 
diff --git a/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md b/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..32637c6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md
@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
++++
+title = "LLMs are everything that it wrong in the world of computing"
+author = ["Michał Sapka"]
+date = 2024-12-23T21:53:00+01:00
+categories = ["blog"]
+draft = false
+weight = 2001
+image_dir = "blog/images"
+image_max_width = 600
+Abstract = "On why I am loosing hope in software"
+Listening = "For help me - Calm Nights"
+Listening_Url = "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A2YmgCOImc"
++++
+
+For decades corporations have been doing anything in their power to make computers _worse_.
+Software used to much faster, much leaner than it is now.
+Hardware performance is progresing by leaps and bounds, but somehow the software is slower.
+Yes, programs we run (cough, web applications, cough) are more complex, but the complexity increase is smaller than the compute improvements.
+
+Software used to also be substantially better written.
+When sending patches to clients was a risk by itself, releasing barely working software was akin to shooting yourself in the foot.
+Now bug are expected.
+Again - I am comparing simpler software to what we have now, but the complexity increase is smaller than increase in budgets and team sizes.
+
+Software also used to be:
+
+-   much more open
+-   purchasable
+-   not requiring internet
+-   not as streamlined
+-   not designed by psychologists to be addictive
+-   not designed to be a constant stream of revenue
+-   swiftly improving
+-   possible to be created by teens in their bedrooms
+-   simple (as in having a limited use case)
+-   small
+-   running on different hardware architectures (yes, there used to be more than 3 systems)
+
+I am often accused of romanticizing past, but I am far from that.
+Software of the golden age had lots of problems, it was far from perfect.
+I am critical of the path we took - as it was aimed not at _better software_, but at _better return of investment_.
+We could have had much better working computers, but here we are.
+Everything is barely working but dollar pours.
+Some call it enshittification, others distribution.
+All I know is this is not going to stop.
+It is never enough.
+
+This brings me to ChatGPT, LLMs and all that crap.
+I have to admit, that the way it works is extremely cool.
+Some vector math is able to fool us into thinking we are interacting with a human being?
+How cool!
+I'd love bo be amazed by it, but if you we look at it critically, it a is terrible peace of software.
+It is slow, expensive, and non-deterministic.
+If I released a code to production with has _some chance_ to work or not, I would need to fix it.
+If the same software yielded different returns _by design_, I'd need to rewrite it.
+
+I am fully convinced that LLMs are not a path forward at best, and a huge step backward at worst.
+A lot of people are looking at this tech with scared eyes, but there's no chance LLM will be better than they are.
+
+However, as in the above examples, better doesn't always win.
+I am afraid that too much money was invested in this dead-end technology for it to fall.
+The entire computing world is the hands of a few gigantic companies, and each of them has fully risked their future on it.
+Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, AMD, Apple - by the end of 2024 there is no big computer company left that is not "AI first".
+Will they let their investments go to waste?
+
+Google search is useless; Windows is a clown show; Facebook/Twitter are not be touched by humans.
+Yet they own _billions_ of dollars.
+They are able to throw piles of dollars in the data center furnace and wait.
+The fact that they also benefit from those dollars doesn't make it any harder.
+
+I know people who already can't work without asking ChatGPT and they lived through better times.
+But I also know teens who never had a fast computer; for whom slow a web app is the only status-quo they have experienced.
+For them the current crap software is simply _software_.
+I am really afraid that the next generations may never know deterministic software.
+Companies can simply continue to add "AI" features (since AI is now a synonym for GenAI), and raise the kids with it.
+Will the kids care that it sucks?
+Will they even know?
+
+Will they give a rat's ass that the GenAI has only two goals: first, to become abstraction over all interactions with computer; second - to make people obsolete?
+I think the first one is the goal, while the other is what GenAI dealers sell to investors.
+Microsoft and Google want to be between everything we do with out computers; that was their strategy for a long time.
+It's a self-propelling nightmare: the worse the vision, the bigger is the money river, which fuels making computers unusable.
+We have already lost so many alternatives - Google is trying to fix itself with GenAI after it destroyed itself with ads, after it destroyed all competition.
+The web was already great.
+Microsoft Windows ate all other x86 OSes except of Unix - and we had dozens of great ones.
+Apple iOS or Google Android are mandatory - but this was not the case a few short years ago.
+
+Progress is not linear and _better_ doesn't always win.
+In most cases whatever gives more return to the investors does.
+And no other technology has more investor risk attached to it than LLMs.
+AI has a lot of usecases, but it is thrown away to make way for GenAI.
+This steamroller may break computers, the economy, and the environment.
+But there is nothing we can about it, as none of us is a billionaire.
+All we can do is to dance how it pleases them.
+
+Unless something **big** happens.
+With infinite pockets, the giants can just [burn the money](https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/) - literally.
+
+---
+
+I will keep this site althole-free, and I will personally run software that has zero LLM.
+I don't use copilot, I had only a dozen chats with GPT.
+I will try to continue keeping LLM subjects here to a minimum.
+This is my life and this is where I have any control.
+This is the only rebellion I am capable of.
+
+---
+
+In unrelated news - SystemD now tries to convince people that having file-based logs is deprecated.
+And in few short years we will have Linux "administrators" who don't know how to use grep(1).