From bc1884973438c39b683cc7a8650d9ed9991a5ca2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: mms Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2024 21:54:20 +0100 Subject: feat: llms scare me --- assets/more/bookmarks.yml | 18 ++++++ content-org/.#blog.org | 1 - content-org/blog.org | 108 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++- content/blog/2024/frame.md | 4 +- content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md | 110 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 236 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) delete mode 120000 content-org/.#blog.org create mode 100644 content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md diff --git a/assets/more/bookmarks.yml b/assets/more/bookmarks.yml index 45a3232..98e234c 100644 --- a/assets/more/bookmarks.yml +++ b/assets/more/bookmarks.yml @@ -313,3 +313,21 @@ bookmarks: host: honest-broker.com source_url: https://chaos.social/@citizen428/113691489014325440 source_host: chaos.social +- url: https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/ + title: Tech giants pour $292 billion into AI while software revenue barely registers. + date: '2024-12-23' + host: indiadispatch.com + source_url: https://tech.slashdot.org/story/24/12/23/1314259/software-revenue-lags-despite-tech-giants-292-billion-ai-spend + source_host: tech.slashdot.org +- url: https://perladvent.org/2024/2024-12-23.html + title: " Perl Advent Calendar 2024 - A New Logo for Perl " + date: '2024-12-23' + host: perladvent.org + source_url: + source_host: +- url: https://www.osnews.com/story/141399/never-forgive-them/ + title: Never forgive them + date: '2024-12-23' + host: osnews.com + source_url: + source_host: diff --git a/content-org/.#blog.org b/content-org/.#blog.org deleted file mode 120000 index e9c1dc6..0000000 --- a/content-org/.#blog.org +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -mms@voyager.local.45942:1734682989 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/content-org/blog.org b/content-org/blog.org index ab98ade..620622d 100644 --- a/content-org/blog.org +++ b/content-org/blog.org @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ #+HUGO_SECTION: blog -* 2024 [107/109] :@blog: +* 2024 [108/110] :@blog: :PROPERTIES: :EXPORT_HUGO_SECTION: blog/2024 :EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :image_dir "blog/images" :image_max_width 600 @@ -124,6 +124,110 @@ Microsoft GitHub is still not near the biggest sin an Open Source can commit whe ** +** DONE LLMs are everything that it wrong in the world of computing +CLOSED: [2024-12-23 Mon 21:53] +:PROPERTIES: +:EXPORT_FILE_NAME: llms-scare-me +:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Abstract On why I am loosing hope in software +:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Listening For help me - Calm Nights +:EXPORT_HUGO_CUSTOM_FRONT_MATTER+: :Listening_Url https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A2YmgCOImc +:END: + +For decades corporations have been doing anything in their power to make computers /worse/. +Software used to much faster, much leaner than it is now. +Hardware performance is progresing by leaps and bounds, but somehow the software is slower. +Yes, programs we run (cough, web applications, cough) are more complex, but the complexity increase is smaller than the compute improvements. + +Software used to also be substantially better written. +When sending patches to clients was a risk by itself, releasing barely working software was akin to shooting yourself in the foot. +Now bug are expected. +Again - I am comparing simpler software to what we have now, but the complexity increase is smaller than increase in budgets and team sizes. + +Software also used to be: +- much more open +- purchasable +- not requiring internet +- not as streamlined +- not designed by psychologists to be addictive +- not designed to be a constant stream of revenue +- swiftly improving +- possible to be created by teens in their bedrooms +- simple (as in having a limited use case) +- small +- running on different hardware architectures (yes, there used to be more than 3 systems) + +I am often accused of romanticizing past, but I am far from that. +Software of the golden age had lots of problems, it was far from perfect. +I am critical of the path we took - as it was aimed not at /better software/, but at /better return of investment/. +We could have had much better working computers, but here we are. +Everything is barely working but dollar pours. +Some call it enshittification, others distribution. +All I know is this is not going to stop. +It is never enough. + +This brings me to ChatGPT, LLMs and all that crap. +I have to admit, that the way it works is extremely cool. +Some vector math is able to fool us into thinking we are interacting with a human being? +How cool! +I'd love bo be amazed by it, but if you we look at it critically, it a is terrible peace of software. +It is slow, expensive, and non-deterministic. +If I released a code to production with has /some chance/ to work or not, I would need to fix it. +If the same software yielded different returns /by design/, I'd need to rewrite it. + +I am fully convinced that LLMs are not a path forward at best, and a huge step backward at worst. +A lot of people are looking at this tech with scared eyes, but there's no chance LLM will be better than they are. + +However, as in the above examples, better doesn't always win. +I am afraid that too much money was invested in this dead-end technology for it to fall. +The entire computing world is the hands of a few gigantic companies, and each of them has fully risked their future on it. +Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, AMD, Apple - by the end of 2024 there is no big computer company left that is not "AI first". +Will they let their investments go to waste? + +Google search is useless; Windows is a clown show; Facebook/Twitter are not be touched by humans. +Yet they own /billions/ of dollars. +They are able to throw piles of dollars in the data center furnace and wait. +The fact that they also benefit from those dollars doesn't make it any harder. + +I know people who already can't work without asking ChatGPT and they lived through better times. +But I also know teens who never had a fast computer; for whom slow a web app is the only status-quo they have experienced. +For them the current crap software is simply /software/. +I am really afraid that the next generations may never know deterministic software. +Companies can simply continue to add "AI" features (since AI is now a synonym for GenAI), and raise the kids with it. +Will the kids care that it sucks? +Will they even know? + +Will they give a rat's ass that the GenAI has only two goals: first, to become abstraction over all interactions with computer; second - to make people obsolete? +I think the first one is the goal, while the other is what GenAI dealers sell to investors. +Microsoft and Google want to be between everything we do with out computers; that was their strategy for a long time. +It's a self-propelling nightmare: the worse the vision, the bigger is the money river, which fuels making computers unusable. +We have already lost so many alternatives - Google is trying to fix itself with GenAI after it destroyed itself with ads, after it destroyed all competition. +The web was already great. +Microsoft Windows ate all other x86 OSes except of Unix - and we had dozens of great ones. +Apple iOS or Google Android are mandatory - but this was not the case a few short years ago. + +Progress is not linear and /better/ doesn't always win. +In most cases whatever gives more return to the investors does. +And no other technology has more investor risk attached to it than LLMs. +AI has a lot of usecases, but it is thrown away to make way for GenAI. +This steamroller may break computers, the economy, and the environment. +But there is nothing we can about it, as none of us is a billionaire. +All we can do is to dance how it pleases them. + +Unless something *big* happens. +With infinite pockets, the giants can just [[https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/][burn the money]] - literally. + +--- + +I will keep this site althole-free, and I will personally run software that has zero LLM. +I don't use copilot, I had only a dozen chats with GPT. +I will try to continue keeping LLM subjects here to a minimum. +This is my life and this is where I have any control. +This is the only rebellion I am capable of. + +--- + +In unrelated news - SystemD now tries to convince people that having file-based logs is deprecated. +And in few short years we will have Linux "administrators" who don't know how to use grep(1). ** DONE New license plate frame CLOSED: [2024-12-21 Sat 21:08] @@ -136,7 +240,7 @@ My car's license plate frame broke, so I had to get new one. I could get a boring, all-black one... or add a few /PLN/ and have it personalized. #+attr_shortcode: :file license-frame.JPEG -#+attr_shortcode: :alt A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" can be seen, an on the right "RunBSD" +#+attr_shortcode: :alt A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" text can be seen, and on the right "RunBSD" #+attr_shortcode: :class centered #+begin_image My new frame diff --git a/content/blog/2024/frame.md b/content/blog/2024/frame.md index df7b24a..eee4d1b 100644 --- a/content/blog/2024/frame.md +++ b/content/blog/2024/frame.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ author = ["Michał Sapka"] date = 2024-12-21T21:08:00+01:00 categories = ["blog"] draft = false -weight = 2001 +weight = 2002 image_dir = "blog/images" image_max_width = 600 Abstract = "RunBSD!" @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Abstract = "RunBSD!" My car's license plate frame broke, so I had to get new one. I could get a boring, all-black one... or add a few _PLN_ and have it personalized. -{{< image class="centered" alt="A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" can be seen, an on the right "RunBSD"" file="license-frame.JPEG" >}} +{{< image class="centered" alt="A black license plate frame. On the left a white "FreeBSD" text can be seen, and on the right "RunBSD"" file="license-frame.JPEG" >}} My new frame {{< /image >}} diff --git a/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md b/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..32637c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/blog/2024/llms-scare-me.md @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ ++++ +title = "LLMs are everything that it wrong in the world of computing" +author = ["Michał Sapka"] +date = 2024-12-23T21:53:00+01:00 +categories = ["blog"] +draft = false +weight = 2001 +image_dir = "blog/images" +image_max_width = 600 +Abstract = "On why I am loosing hope in software" +Listening = "For help me - Calm Nights" +Listening_Url = "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A2YmgCOImc" ++++ + +For decades corporations have been doing anything in their power to make computers _worse_. +Software used to much faster, much leaner than it is now. +Hardware performance is progresing by leaps and bounds, but somehow the software is slower. +Yes, programs we run (cough, web applications, cough) are more complex, but the complexity increase is smaller than the compute improvements. + +Software used to also be substantially better written. +When sending patches to clients was a risk by itself, releasing barely working software was akin to shooting yourself in the foot. +Now bug are expected. +Again - I am comparing simpler software to what we have now, but the complexity increase is smaller than increase in budgets and team sizes. + +Software also used to be: + +- much more open +- purchasable +- not requiring internet +- not as streamlined +- not designed by psychologists to be addictive +- not designed to be a constant stream of revenue +- swiftly improving +- possible to be created by teens in their bedrooms +- simple (as in having a limited use case) +- small +- running on different hardware architectures (yes, there used to be more than 3 systems) + +I am often accused of romanticizing past, but I am far from that. +Software of the golden age had lots of problems, it was far from perfect. +I am critical of the path we took - as it was aimed not at _better software_, but at _better return of investment_. +We could have had much better working computers, but here we are. +Everything is barely working but dollar pours. +Some call it enshittification, others distribution. +All I know is this is not going to stop. +It is never enough. + +This brings me to ChatGPT, LLMs and all that crap. +I have to admit, that the way it works is extremely cool. +Some vector math is able to fool us into thinking we are interacting with a human being? +How cool! +I'd love bo be amazed by it, but if you we look at it critically, it a is terrible peace of software. +It is slow, expensive, and non-deterministic. +If I released a code to production with has _some chance_ to work or not, I would need to fix it. +If the same software yielded different returns _by design_, I'd need to rewrite it. + +I am fully convinced that LLMs are not a path forward at best, and a huge step backward at worst. +A lot of people are looking at this tech with scared eyes, but there's no chance LLM will be better than they are. + +However, as in the above examples, better doesn't always win. +I am afraid that too much money was invested in this dead-end technology for it to fall. +The entire computing world is the hands of a few gigantic companies, and each of them has fully risked their future on it. +Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, AMD, Apple - by the end of 2024 there is no big computer company left that is not "AI first". +Will they let their investments go to waste? + +Google search is useless; Windows is a clown show; Facebook/Twitter are not be touched by humans. +Yet they own _billions_ of dollars. +They are able to throw piles of dollars in the data center furnace and wait. +The fact that they also benefit from those dollars doesn't make it any harder. + +I know people who already can't work without asking ChatGPT and they lived through better times. +But I also know teens who never had a fast computer; for whom slow a web app is the only status-quo they have experienced. +For them the current crap software is simply _software_. +I am really afraid that the next generations may never know deterministic software. +Companies can simply continue to add "AI" features (since AI is now a synonym for GenAI), and raise the kids with it. +Will the kids care that it sucks? +Will they even know? + +Will they give a rat's ass that the GenAI has only two goals: first, to become abstraction over all interactions with computer; second - to make people obsolete? +I think the first one is the goal, while the other is what GenAI dealers sell to investors. +Microsoft and Google want to be between everything we do with out computers; that was their strategy for a long time. +It's a self-propelling nightmare: the worse the vision, the bigger is the money river, which fuels making computers unusable. +We have already lost so many alternatives - Google is trying to fix itself with GenAI after it destroyed itself with ads, after it destroyed all competition. +The web was already great. +Microsoft Windows ate all other x86 OSes except of Unix - and we had dozens of great ones. +Apple iOS or Google Android are mandatory - but this was not the case a few short years ago. + +Progress is not linear and _better_ doesn't always win. +In most cases whatever gives more return to the investors does. +And no other technology has more investor risk attached to it than LLMs. +AI has a lot of usecases, but it is thrown away to make way for GenAI. +This steamroller may break computers, the economy, and the environment. +But there is nothing we can about it, as none of us is a billionaire. +All we can do is to dance how it pleases them. + +Unless something **big** happens. +With infinite pockets, the giants can just [burn the money](https://indiadispatch.com/2024/12/22/big-techs-292-billion-ai-spending-spree-meets-the-revenue-desert/) - literally. + +--- + +I will keep this site althole-free, and I will personally run software that has zero LLM. +I don't use copilot, I had only a dozen chats with GPT. +I will try to continue keeping LLM subjects here to a minimum. +This is my life and this is where I have any control. +This is the only rebellion I am capable of. + +--- + +In unrelated news - SystemD now tries to convince people that having file-based logs is deprecated. +And in few short years we will have Linux "administrators" who don't know how to use grep(1). -- cgit v1.2.3